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policy papers

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Date:
2023-03-11
Authors:
Piotr Lewandowski
Iga Magda
Publications category:
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The labor market in Poland, 2000−2021
In the early 2000s, Poland's unemployment rate reached 20%. That is now a distant memory, as employment has increased noticeably and the unemployment rate had dropped to 3.4% in 2021. The labor force participation of older workers increased following reforms aimed at prolonging careers. However, participation remains low compared to most developed countries and the reversal of the statutory retirement age in 2017 leaves Poland vulnerable to the effects of population aging. Rising immigration has eased the resulting labor shortages, but women, people with disabilities, and agricultural workers remain underemployed. During the Covid-19 pandemic the slowdown in economic growth and increase in unemployment were small.
Date:
2022-05-09
Authors:
Jakub Sokołowski
Marek Antosiewicz
Piotr Lewandowski
Publications category:
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The economic effects of stopping Russian energy import in Poland
We estimate the macroeconomic and distributional effects that a ban on fuel imports from Russia would have in Poland. We simulate the embargo as a hike in oil, gas and coal prices, and evaluate the macroeconomic effects with a dynamic general equilibrium model. Depending on the severity of the price hikes, we expect Poland’s GDP to be lower by 0.2–3.3% by the end of 2022, and by 2.1–5.7% by 2025. Furthermore, depending on the price increases, high-income households would spend an additional 0.2–1.3% of their incomes on energy in 2022 and 0.7–1.6% in 2025, and low-income households would spend 0.3–4.7% more of their incomes on energy in 2022 and 2.6–4.8% in 2025.
Date:
2022-01-25
Authors:
Piotr Lewandowski
Publications category:
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Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in Poland
We estimate that by January 2022, vaccinations halved the number of COVID-19 deaths in Poland in 2021 as compared to what would happen if a vaccine would not be available. People aged 70 and over made up the vast majority of prevented deaths. Vaccinating people aged 70+ is a much more effective method of lowering COVID-19 mortality rates than vaccinating people of working age.